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Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has a simple way to predict the future. The future is simply what rich people have today. The rich have chauffeurs. In the future, we will have driverless cars that chauffeur us all around. The rich have private bankers. In the future, we will all have robo-bankers.
One thing that we imagine that the rich have today are lives of leisure. So will our future be one in which we too have lives of leisure, and the machines are taking the sweat? We will be able to spend our time on more important things than simply feeding and housing ourselves?
Let’s turn to another chief economist. Andy Haldane is chief economist at the Bank of England. In November 2015, he predicted that 15 million jobs in the UK, roughly half of all jobs, were under threat from automation. You’d hope he knew what he was talking about.
AdvertisementAnd he’s not the only one making dire predictions. Politicians. Bankers. Industrialists. They’re all saying a similar thing.
“We need urgently to face the challenge of automation, robotics that could make so much of contemporary work redundant”, Jeremy Corbyn at the Labour Party Conference in September 2017.
“World Bank data has predicted that the proportion of jobs threatened by automation in India is 69 percent, 77 percent in China and as high as 85 percent in Ethiopia”, according to World Bank president Jim Yong Kim in 2016.
It really does sound like we might be facing the end of work as we know it.
Many of these fears can be traced back to a 2013 study from the University of Oxford. This made a much quoted prediction that 47% of jobs in the US were under threat of automation in the next two decades. Other more recent and detailed studies have made similar dramatic predictions.
Now, there’s a lot to criticize in the Oxford study. From a technical perspective, some of report’s predictions are clearly wrong. The report gives a 94% probability that bicycle repair person will be automated in the next two decades. And, as someone trying to build that future, I can reassure any bicycle repair person that there is zero chance that we will automate even small parts of your job anytime soon. The truth of the matter is no one has any real idea of the number of jobs at risk.
Even if we have as many as 47% of jobs automated, this won’t translate into 47% unemployment. One reason is that we might just work a shorter week. That was the case in the Industrial Revolution. Before the Industrial Revolution, many worked 60 hours per week. After the Industrial Revolution, work reduced to around 40 hours per week. The same could happen with the unfolding AI Revolution.
Another reason that 47% automation won’t translate into 47% unemployment is that all technologies create new jobs as well as destroy them. That’s been the case in the past, and we have no reason to suppose that it won’t be the case in the future. There is, however, no fundamental law of economics that requires the same number of jobs to be created as destroyed. In the past, more jobs were created than destroyed but it doesn’t have to be so in the future.
In the Industrial Revolution, machines took over many of the physical tasks we used to do. But we humans were still left with all the cognitive tasks. This time, as machines start to take on many of the cognitive tasks too, there’s the worrying question: what is left for us humans?
Some of my colleagues suggest there will be plenty of new jobs like robot repair person. I am entirely unconvinced by such claims. The thousands of people who used to paint and weld in most of our car factories got replaced by only a couple of robot repair people.
No, the new jobs will have to be doing jobs where either humans excel or where we choose not to have machines. But here’s the contradiction. In fifty to hundred years time, machines will be super-human. So it’s hard to imagine of any job where humans will remain better than the machines. This means the only jobs left will be those where we prefer humans to do them.
The AI Revolution then will be about rediscovering the things that make us human. Technically, machines will have become amazing artists. They will be able to write music to rival Bach, and paintings to match Picasso. But we’ll still prefer works produced by human artists.
These works will speak to the human experience. We will appreciate a human artist who speaks about love because we have this in common. No machine will truly experience love like we do.
As well as the artistic, there will be a re-appreciation of the artisan. Indeed, we see the beginnings of this already in hipster culture. We will appreciate more and more those things made by the human hand. Mass-produced goods made by machine will become cheap. But items made by hand will be rare and increasingly valuable.
Finally as social animals, we will also increasingly appreciate and value social interactions with other humans. So the most important human traits will be our social and emotional intelligence, as well as our artistic and artisan skills. The irony is that our technological future will not be about technology but all about our humanity.
Toby Walsh is Professor of Artificial Intelligence at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney, Australia. His new book, “Android Dreams: the past, present and future of Artificial Intelligence” was published in the UK by Hurst Publishers in September 2017. It’s available from the Guardian Bookshop. You can read more at his blog, http://thefutureofai.blogspot.com/
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Tham khảo
Nowaday, the life is modern. Smart phones and computers are very popular and they appear all around us. Using smart phones is a necessary part of many students' life and students should use smartphone in their studying Students can learn in the Internet, search information for their lessons,... Using smart phones can solve many problems quickly and easily. But, there is a problem.Some students mostly use smart phones to relax and spend less time studying. They concentrate on the smart phones instead of keeping their eye on learning.
If students were allowed to use smart phones, learning would be easier . Unless they were banned to use smart phones, they could be focus on learning. Anyway, I think smart phones shouldn't be banned. Although it makes students can't be focus on the lessons, It helps them a lots in relaxing at break time and studying. We've also got some suitable rules such as: not using phones while you are studying, just use them at break time,...
Nowaday, the life is modern. Smart phones and computers are very popular and they appear all around us. Using smart phones is a necessary part of many students' life and students should use smartphone in their studying Students can learn in the Internet, search information for their lessons,... Using smart phones can solve many problems quickly and easily. But, there is a problem.Some students mostly use smart phones to relax and spend less time studying. They concentrate on the smart phones instead of keeping their eye on learning.
If students were allowed to use smart phones, learning would be easier . Unless they were banned to use smart phones, they could be focus on learning. Anyway, I think smart phones shouldn't be banned. Although it makes students can't be focus on the lessons, It helps them a lots in relaxing at break time and studying. We've also got some suitable rules such as: not using phones while you are studying, just use them at break time,...
The world is currently very developed, which means that technology is very evolving. And technology brings a lot of benefits, I of course agree. Because it's so useful. Technology makes it easy to communicate with friends, family and work remotely, even when you're in another part of the world. You can communicate verbally, video, audio and exchange other media. All websites, applications and software have been created to help users socialize. Social media, texting, texting, laptops, tablets, and cell phones mean no one needs to feel isolated in the digital world. Users can be regularly updated with news about local events and social developments. We can also learn through technology. Anyone with access to the internet today can access a huge amount of the world's knowledge through the web. Alternatively, lessons and courses can now be offered virtually online. Online social media or playing computer and mobile games is becoming more and more popular. Traditional media also developed, as television and broadcasting were digitized along with radio. It has many benefits, but it also has harmful effects. Nowadays, there are a lot of young people who are interacting too much with internet devices, and can easily watch bad programs, programs that are not good for them. However, Technology is also a lot of benefits, is an important part of our life
Technology is a complex set of processes that includes a skill, method, tool, know-how or means to convert a resource into a product. It is a systematic, creative activity with the main purpose of developing knowledge related to man, nature and society.
In the future, technology can bring us many benefits. Do you think so? And of course, everything in the world also has benefits and harms. But in my opinion, it has a very important effect on human life and nature.
The advent of science and technology, along with advanced scientific inventions, completely changed the face of human life. Smartphones, computers, air conditioners, robots, card payments, mobile phones, cars, self-driving aircraft, ... are advanced and intelligent inventions of mankind. Marking a new era of development in human history. The advent of advanced technological and scientific equipment has boosted the economic and social development. These devices help people to solve jobs quickly and effectively without having to spend too much labor. It is these inventions that have marked people entering a new period of development. Advanced technology equipment, gradually replacing working people, no sellers, unmanned, housework with robots, turning on and off automatic light bulbs, ...
Besides the positives that technology brings, we cannot deny. But besides the positives, there are always negative sides. Technology makes you more lazy, sometimes makes you selfish and insane. You do not want to do housework, you use robot to work for you, while you sit and listen to music, watch movies. You become selfish and crazy when your computer, mobile phone, internet is slow and cannot load. That makes you angry and unjustifiably mad at the phone, the computer. Technology makes you lose your sense of sleep, destroying your biological clock. Because people always have a habit of using the phone before going to bed, or watching movies before going to bed. It is that habit that takes away your sleep, the late sleep habit will destroy your circadian clock. Not only sleep, your health is also severely affected, high risk of cancer, obesity, depression, psychological instability and memory loss. Technology - the risk of unemployment, underemployment. No need for houseworkers, no need to hire a driver, fly a plane, no need for salesmen, or collect money. All seem to be replaced by technology, which affects the lives of many people, unemployment, no job means no money to cover their lives.
Through this we can see that the technological development has brought about a whole new change to people. But it also brings people many undesirable consequences affecting people's health, life, and spirit. Therefore, we must know how to use technology properly, so as not to affect your health, as well as your spirit, your life.
Do you think the same as me? It is these negative effects that the previous benefits gradually disappear. Then one day, our country will perish by this harm.
In modern world, technology has played an active role in people physical lives; on the other hand, it can not touch our spiritual lives while art can. One of several reasons related to this is that art help us express our soul. Actually science is a combinations of tools, methods and machines which solve our physical problems. Meanwhile art such as colorful drawings, paintings, rock songs, romantic movies gives painters, film writers a ability to express their ideas and feelings. That is why art probably touch our soul. Other reason is a benefit of enjoying artworks to who enjoy art. It for instance listening to music and watching movie helps listeners and viewers feel relax after a hard-working day fulled of stress. While, techonology can not cause it can only solve our particular troubles, save time and cost, not a spiritual troubles. In short, both science and art play a significant role in human life, people are not able to live without one of those.
(Tham khảo đi !)
Refer:
There has been a lot of argument about whether students should be allowed to bring their mobile phones to school. In my opinion, students should not be allowed to bring their mobile phones to school. Let me explain why it is reasonable not to allow students to bring their phones to school.
First of all, I think mobile phones will sidetrack the learning of students. If they use their mobile phones for playing or just for learning purpose, they may not pay enough attention in class because they just concentrate on playing with their mobile phones. So, the academic results of the students will drop due to the use of the mobile phones during the class. Moreover, the learning process of the students may be hindered too.
Secondly, bringing their own mobile phones is not necessary because of the public phones in school. Public phones are provided by the school. So, students can use phones near the school gate or tuck shop. And there are three public phones, which are enough for students to contact their parents. They need not bring their phones to school if their reason is contacting their parents.
What is more, there are enough resources for learning in school already. As a result, students don’t have the need to bring their phones to school. Because of the rapid development of technologies nowadays, computers are invented. So they can use computers for learning. Moreover, computers mostly have the programmes or function which mobile phones share the same too. Therefore,it is not a must or a need for students to bring their phones to school.
However, some students said that the purpose of bringing mobile phones to school is to contact parents if they face a traffic accident. But in fact, students just use one or two minutes to contact their parents, and they use plenty of time to play games in their mobile phones. This shows the main purpose of bringing mobile phones is not contacting their parents, but to play with their mobile phones on the way back home. Bringing mobile phones in order to contact their parents is just an excuse for them.
To sum up, students bringing their phones to school is just to play with their phones only, but not to contact their parents. Therefore, I think students should not be allowed to bring mobile phones to school.
Today, there are many students who are using, there are private phones for themselves, but there are some of you who not only use them at home but also bring them to school to use, I partially agree and partly disagree. As for the consent, there are people who need to use the phone as a source of information to look up and study online. but I don't mind more. Because most students bring their phones to school to surf the net, take pictures, text messages, and access unhealthy social networking sites. Therefore, even if the phone can be looked up and useful for learning, it should not be brought to school
2.In modern world, technology has played an active role in people physical lives; on the other hand, it can not touch our spiritual lives while art can. One of several reasons related to this is that art help us express our soul. Actually science is a combinations of tools, methods and machines which solve our physical problems. Meanwhile art such as colorful drawings, paintings, rock songs, romantic movies gives painters, film writers a ability to express their ideas and feelings. That is why art probably touch our soul. Other reason is a benefit of enjoying artworks to who enjoy art. It for instance listening to music and watching movie helps listeners and viewers feel relax after a hard-working day fulled of stress. While, techonology can not cause it can only solve our particular troubles, save time and cost, not a spiritual troubles. In short, both science and art play a significant role in human life, people are not able to live without one of those.
I agree with that opinion.Because Korean dramas have highly entertaining content, beautiful images, close to Vietnamese culture as well as educational, that have helped viewers absorb the weaknesses. positive factor, progress and humanity of Korean culture. This has created a lively cultural exchange, sparking creativity and giving rise to new cultural values among Vietnamese youth. Master Vu Ngoc Hoa affirmed: "Korean films have helped young people learn many useful things for life, contributing to the orientation of a beautiful lifestyle, character formation, talent development, and shaping. healthy aesthetic tastes ".
In fact, in Korean movies, there are many positive points for young people to learn. In the research of the Vietnam Institute of Culture and Arts, the highlights that young people learn are the will to rise (18.5%), how to express romantic love (56.2%), how to live by themselves. establishment (39%), passion at work (23.4%), how to keep dignity at home and at work (20.5%) and patience and endurance (22.5%) . What is surprising is that in terms of gender relations, men learn a number of things in Korean films higher than women. For example, the prominent characteristic of Asian women is endurance, patience and self-sacrifice for family, but in the above study, men have learned patience and endurance much higher. twice as much as women (28.5% and 17%). This shows that Korean films have had a strong impact in changing the way of thinking and lifestyle of a part of today's young people.
Tick nha,chuc học tốt
I disagree with that idea.Because although there are many positive aspects such as the research of the Institute of Culture and Art, according to the research of culture experts, one of the negative effects of Korean films is the imitation of actions and gestures of actors. outrageous ways among today's young people. That's why, as soon as the TV showed the movie "Winter Sonata", on the street, there were Bae Young Joon Vietnamese guys appearing with long hair, white glasses, even wearing hot clothes, towel, even though the weather is summer. Another influence is the sentimentality of many characters in the film (accounting for 74.4% of the accounting), which makes many young men "suddenly" also have sentimental expressions in daily activities.
Korean movies have scenes that do not match the teenagers.
Korean films are very good, so it's easy to be addictive for teenagers, so they will neglect to study to watch movies.
Mình làm 2 bài để bạn tham khảo.
Nhớ tick nha,
Some people think that it’s better for their children to grow up in the countryside; other people think that it’s better their children to grow up in a big city. Both possibilities have some advantages and disadvantages. I’ll give advantages of each approach and I’ll argue in favor of this that it’s better for children to grow up in the countryside.
In a society where money, career and convenience are important things, many people prefer to live in big cities. Consequently their children grow up there. In the following passage I’ll state some important aspects of the life in the big cities. People go to live there at many reasons. First, a big city provides many opportunities for career and education. For instance, If I live in South Dakota I’ll have chance to live in connection with nature but there are few universities and work positions. However if I live in New York I’ll have opportunity to choose between hundreds of universities and thousands free work positions. This connection If our children grow up in a big city, they will have chance to study in prestige school. Besides, they will be prepared for the life with strong competition.
However we know that the life in a big city has some disadvantages. For instance, stress is problem number one in a big city. That is why many people think that it’s better for their children to grow up in the countryside. The life there has many advantages. First, children, which grow up in the countryside, have chance to live with connection with nature. In most cases there are more calmly and they seldom suffer from psychical diseases in contrast with children which grow in a big city. The life in the countryside is not so dynamic than life in the big city. In the countryside there are few changes. For example, children often spend their childhood in one house, they study in one school, and their parents rarely change their work positions, which reflect negative on the children. To sum up, the life in the countryside is related to few problems than this in a big city.
In conclusion, I think that it’s better for children to grow up in the countryside. That is why, the first thing that we must save is health of our children.
cậu tham khảo đoạn văn này nha
Since the advent of technology, it has provided us with a more convenient life, but to some extent it has reduced people's ability to reason. Since everyone has depended on them, there will be an inability and sufficient awareness to cope with adverse circumstances. So besides the advantages of technology, we cannot help but mention the limitations of laziness and reliance on human technology.
Chúc cậu học tốt :)))))))))))))))